Understanding COVID-19 Economic Recovery in Okanogan County
COVID-19 has affected economies across Washington State, including those in rural areas like Okanogan County. This Dashboard was designed in partnership with local leaders and the University of Washington to help the Okanogan County community understand factors that often influence recovery after economic recessions, and assist community leaders in decision-making as they support recovery efforts and distribute resources.
This dashboard displays key, community-level data connected to five unique factors that influence economic recovery:
- Previous Poverty
- Loss in Revenue & Income
- Access to Government Intervention
- Dependence on Direct Assistance & Public Sector Employment
- Spread of COVID-19
Recovery Indicator 1: Previous PovertyLow- and middle-income households tend to spend (rather than save) more of their income than higher-income households. Communities with high concentrations of low- and middle-income households often do not have sufficient spending power to drive market demand and assist in recession recovery. Sources: Hertz T. Rural Employment Trends in Recession and Recovery. U S Dep Agric. 2014; Economic Research Report Number 172:38. Bivens J. Inequality is slowing U.S. economic growth: Faster wage growth for low- and middle-wage workers is the solution. Economic Policy Institute. Published December 12, 2017. https://www.epi.org/publication/secular-stagnation/
Recovery Indicator 2: Loss in Revenue & IncomeReductions in revenue and household income leave residents and others with less money to spend in local economies. In addition to losing income because of unemployment, individuals may be more likely to compromise on pay and work to simply remain employed during a recession, which leads to losses in earning across time. Hanauer A. Ohio’s economy no longer fully recovers after recessions. Economic Policy Institute. Published May 23, 2019. https://www.epi.org/blog/ohios-economy-no-longer-fully-recovers-after-recessions Kalleberg Al, Von Wachter TM. The U.S. Labor Market During and After the Great Recession: Continuities and Transformations. Russell Sage Found J Soc Sci RSF. 2017;3(3):1-19. doi:10.7758/rsf.2017.3.3.01
Recovery Indicator 3: Access to Government InterventionCash and other forms of assistance help households and small businesses cover their typical, recurring expenses during periods of sustained underemployment or unemployment. Without this financial intervention, families will spend less in their local economy and increasingly rely on non-crisis-specific government support (e.g. subsidized housing, food benefits). Bhutta N, Blair J, Dettling L, Moore K. COVID-19, the CARES Act, and Families’ Financial Security. Natl Tax J. 2020;73(3):645-672. doi:10.17310/ntj.2020.3.02 Page KR, Venkataramani M, Beyrer C, Polk S. Undocumented U.S. Immigrants and Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(21):e62. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2005953 Babayan M. Investments Today Can Lead to Better Health Tomorrow. Wash State Budg Policy Cent. Published online July 2020. https://budgetandpolicy.org/resources-tools/2020/07/Investments-Today-Can-Lead-to-Better-Health-Tomorrow_July-2020-1.pdf
Recovery Indicator 4: Dependence on Direct Assistance & Public Sector EmploymentStates are likely to enact spending cuts in times of recession, these cuts often include layoffs in public sector employment, tuition increases, and reduction in public services. States also often experience higher enrollment in general public support systems, which further strains their budget. The State spending cuts risk leaving households with reduced income and wage supplements. Leachman M, McNichol E. Pandemic’s Impact on State Revenues Less Than Earlier Expected But Still Severe. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Published October 30, 2020. Accessed February 18, 2021. https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/pandemics-impact-on-state-revenues-less-than-earlier-expected-but Gordon T. State and Local Budgets and the Great Recession. Brookings. Published December 31, 2012. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/state-and-local-budgets-and-the-great-recession/ Rosewicz B, Maciag M. Nearly All States Suffer Declines in Education Jobs. The Pew Charitable Trusts. Published November 10, 2020. https://pew.org/3lgkC5E Bartik T. A proposal for timely, responsive federal aid to state and local governments during the pandemic recession. Research Highlights. Upjohn Institute. Published April 20, 2020. https://www.upjohn.org/research-highlights/proposal-timely-responsive-federal-aid-state-and-local-governments-during-pandemic-recession
Recovery Indicator 5: Spread of COVID-19When COVID-19 rates are high, states act to reduce virus spread by closing public and private services. These necessary closures impact economic diversity, further gender wage gaps, and reduce household spending in local economies. Dizikes P. The data speak: Stronger pandemic response yields better economic recovery. MIT News. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Published March 31, 2020. https://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401 Shambaugh J. COVID-19 and the US economy: FAQ on the economic impact & policy response. Brookings. Published March 23, 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/03/23/covid-19-and-the-u-s-economy-faq-on-the-economic-impact-policy-response/ July 2020 Small Business Coronavirus Impact Poll. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Published July 28, 2020. . https://www.uschamber.com/report/july-2020-small-business-coronavirus-impact-poll
Data & Methodology
How the data in this report was calculated.
This report includes totalling data from 24 measures, collected from 14 public sources (described below).
Some of the summary data included in the report may not include suppressed data. Data suppression occurs in cases where private, identifying information would be disclosed. In most cases, this does not impact the total values presented in the report, but in cases where there are small industries or areas, data suppressions may reduce the accuracy of the data we can display.
United States Census Bureau - American Community Survey
The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes a rolling 5-year average profile of American communities.
Tables used: S1701, S2201, B27010, B19057
Data Year: 2019 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables
Population estimate; Percent below poverty level; Percent households receiving food stamps
Population for whom poverty status is determined; Census-tract levels; Under 5 years old; Black or African American alone; American Indian and Alaska Native alone; Asian alone; Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone; Some other race alone; Two or more races; Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race); White alone, not Hispanic or Latino. Population 25 years and over: Less than high school graduate; High school graduate (includes equivalency); Some college, associate's degree; Bachelor's degree or higher. Households; Female householder, no spouse present with children under 18 years. Employer-based insurance; Direct purchase; Medicare; Medicaid; No insurance; Coverage combination. With public assistance income. Note that the Margin of Error (MoE) in the estimates of poverty level range vastly by Census Tracts and other demographic characteristics, due to small sample size. Readers are advised to keep this in mind when interpreting the poverty estimates. Even though the MoE are not reported in this dashboard, they are available in the Source Tables on the Census website link we provide above. Data are based on a sample and are subject to sampling variability. The degree of uncertainty for an estimate arising from sampling variability is represented through the use of a MoE. The value shown in the Source Tables on the census website is the 90 percent margin of error. The margin of error can be interpreted roughly as providing a 90 percent probability that the interval defined by the estimate minus the margin of error and the estimate plus the margin of error (the lower and upper confidence bounds) contains the true value. In addition to sampling variability, the ACS estimates are subject to nonsampling error (for a discussion of nonsampling variability, see ACS Technical Documentation). The effect of nonsampling error is not represented in the Source Tables.
Child Nutrition Program Reports - Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction: Area Eligibility Data/Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals
Child Nutrition Services collects free and reduced-price meals eligibility data from public school districts that participate in the National School Lunch Program each year in October. This data reflects students enrolled in a participating school with access to school meals. Data is aggregated to represent a school and district free and reduced-price percentages. The data can be filtered by county. Child Nutrition Program data defines enrollment as students enrolled in the school district with access to school meals. These numbers represent students enrolled in the district and with access to school meals as of the last school meals operating day in October 2019. Brewster, Nespelem, Omak, Oroville, Pateros, Tonasket school districts participate in Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) at the district-level while schools in the Grand Coulee Dam, Okanogan, and Methow Valley school districts do not participate. Paschal Sherman Indian School (enrollment n = 170), is a BIE Tribally Controlled Grant school funded by the BIE, and also participates in CEP at the district-level through Cooperative Agreement with Omak school district.
Data Year: 2019 - 2020
Measures: Free and reduced lunch enrollment
Population: Public school districts in Okanogan County that participate in the National School Lunch Program
Washington State Department of Revenue: Local Tax Distribution
Retail sales and use tax amounts remitted to the Washington State Department of Revenue.
Data Year: 2019 - 2020 monthly
Measures: Transient Rental tax, Special Hotel/Motel tax
Population: Businesses in Okanogan County
Washington State Department of Revenue: Gross Business Income
This system produces totals of Gross Business Income (GBI) by industry. Industries are identified by SIC and NAICS codes.
Data Year: 2019 - 2020 quarterly
Measures: Gross Business Income by iIndustry
Population: All NAICS codes in Okanogan County
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research (FRED) - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate in Okanogan County
These data come from the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reported by FRED. Unemployed persons are all persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the 4 week-period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed. The unemployment rate is the unemployed percent of the civilian labor force [100 times (unemployed/civilian labor force)].
Data Year: 2019 - 2020 monthly
Measures: Unemployment rate (monthly)
Population: Civilian labor force in Okanogan County; civilian labor force in Washington State
Washington State Department of Commerce: Economic Recovery Dashboard
This tool uses a variety of data sources to track Washington state’s economic recovery and resiliency. It displays the latest available data on employment, businesses, government assistance programs and consumer behavior, helping monitor the economic impact of COVID-19 across our state. Updates are made monthly.
Data Year: 2019 - 2020 monthly
Measures: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and State Food Assistance Program (FAP) participants by month
Population: Washington State residents, Okanogan County residents
Employment Security Department - Labor Market and Performance Analysis: Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims Weekly Dashboard
Initial Claims applications for UnempIoyment Insurance - Washington State.
Data Year: 2020 monthly
Measures: Unemployment initial claims
Population: Washington State residents; Okanogan County residents
U.S. Department of the Treasury - Small Business Administration (SBA): Paycheck Protection Program Loan Level Data
The publicly released PPP data is based on information submitted by the lender to SBA.
Data Year: 2020
Measures: Median Paycheck Protection Program loans under $150,000; Total Paycheck Protection Program loans of $150,000 and above per Washington State county; Number of Paycheck Protection Program loans of $150,000 and above per 100,000 residents per Washington State county
Population: Businesses in Okanogan County; businesses in Washington State
Okanogan County Public Health: COVID-19 2-Week Incident Rate Data
This data was compiled by Okanogan County Public Health.
Data Year: 2020
Measures: COVID-19 2 week incidence rate per 100,000 population in Okanogan County; COVID-19 2 week incidence rate organized by school district per 100,000 population in Okanogan County
Population: Okanogan County residents
Washington State Department of Health: COVID-19 Data Dashboard
Confirmed cases are individuals with a positive molecular test for COVID-19. Probable cases are individuals with a positive antigen test for COVID-19 and no positive molecular case.
Data Year: 2020
Measures: COVID-19 2 week incidence rate per 100,000 population in Washington State
Population: Washington State residents